Outcome of COVID-19 in patients with rheumatic and inflammatory diseases treated with mycophenolic acid: data from the French RMD COVID-19 cohort.

BACKGROUND: Patients with inflammatory rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (iRMD) receiving mycophenolic acid (MPA) may have a less favourable outcome from COVID-19 infection. Our aim was to investigate whether MPA treatment is associated with severe infection and/or death. METHODS: IRMD patients with and without MPA treatment with highly suspected/confirmed COVID-19 were included in this observational multicentre study. The primary outcome was death rate from COVID-19 with secondary objectives to determine the severity of infection and length of hospital stay. Outcome comparisons were made using regression models with and without adjustment on prespecified confounding factors. ORs, sub-HR (sHR) and 95% CIs were calculated using patients not treated with MPA as a reference group. RESULTS: Of the 1977 patients, 1928 were not treated with MPA (393 were MPA eligible), and 49 patients were treated with MPA. MPA-treated patients had more severe disease, longer hospital stays and higher death rate from COVID-19 than non-MPA patients (OR 8.02 (95% CI 3.35 to 19.20), p<0.001; sHR 0.57 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.98), p=0.040; OR 11.58 (95% CI 4.10 to 32.69), p<0.001). In adjusted analyses, however, no outcome was independently associated with MPA treatment. Death rate, severity and length of hospital stay of MPA-treated patients were not significantly different from those of not treated but MPA-eligible patients. CONCLUSION: MPA therapy is not associated with a more severe COVID-19 infection. However, due to increased vulnerability of developing a severe form of COVID-19, careful consideration should be taken with iRMD patients likely to be treated with MPA. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04353609.

Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases: Results From the Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Some patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings. METHODS: Data were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier. RESULTS: The study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator. CONCLUSION: We were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression.